• “DEVASTATION FROM NATURAL DISASTERS CAN NEVER BE COMPLETELY AVOIDED; We live on a planet that is often hostile to our well-being.” Last week’s fire crises were certainly the result of both natural and human factors. Meteorological factors were abnormal windstorms combined with exceptionally dry and ignitable fuel (neither of which are demonstrably an effect of ‘climate change’). But human factors unquestionably contributed to severity of the devastation, including (1) overgrown forests having long built-up without removal and prescribed burning; (2) quantity of homes built on hillsides and in close proximity; (3) degree of combustible versus fire-resistant materials utilized in building structures; (4) the quantity of trees & vegetation planted for aesthetic purposes; (5) Utility power-lines; (6) insufficient water supply; (7) inadequate funding of fire-fighting personnel, equipment, and water reserves – all without consideration of potential catastrophic risk. Moving forward, especially with California politics, requires overcoming multiple challenges including funding constraints based on politics, workforce shortages, logistical issues related to complex land-ownership patterns, and politically-guided regulatory obstacles, especially Environmental Quality Acts, Coastal & Forest Service Commissions, and municipal zoning & permit agencies. Some rough times are ahead. [CITY JOURNAL – 1/9/25]
  •  BANS OR RESTRICTING CELL PHONES IN SCHOOLS have now been passed in 19 states including California. Several studies have found up to 95% of American teenagers have access to a smartphone and spend hours on it daily “distracting their immature prefrontal cortexes, especially in educational settings.” With some 75% of high school, a third of middle school, and even 6% of elementary teachers considering this a ‘major problem,’ global research now suggests that bans can also reduce social problems including cyberbullying. However, “the efficacy of any smartphone ‘ban’ is context dependent, with implementation critical to success – meaning phones secured and students unable to access their devices, along with not misusing provided technology” – and that’s easier ordered than controlled.  [REAL CLEAR SCIENCE – 1/16/25]
  •  THE NEXT STEP IN HUMAN HISTORY IS PROJECTED TO BE THE ‘AGE OF DEPOPULATION.’  While America is in better shape than other developed countries, we will still face the social and economic challenges of evolving family structures & living arrangements driven by Aging, along with a collapse in ‘replacement fertility.’  The Census Bureau projects that U.S. population will peak during the next six decades and head into a continuous decline thereafter. The revolutionary force which is driving depopulation is simply a worldwide reduction in the desire for children, i.e. ‘what women want.’  Globally this is already manifesting a revolution in family units, with marriages at later ages or not at all, cohabitation and temporary unions, or homes in which one person lives independently. The collective impact will increasingly result in fewer workers/ savers/ taxpayers/ renters/ homebuyers/ entrepreneurs/ innovators/ inventors/ consumers/ voters/ etc. etc., while smaller families also contend with the needs of caring for an aging society, many suffering dementia.  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/age-depopulation-surviving-world-gone-gray-nicholas-eberstadt

 THOUGHTS FOR THE NEW YEAR:

  •  A major new study examining brain atrophy and memory in healthy individuals age 30 to 89 found “loss of brain cells and nerve fibers in everyone over age 50, concluding that we all experience loss of brain cells from early adulthood and throughout life as a “normal process. While this progresses more in those who develop Alzheimer, genetic risk alone does not appear sufficient to trigger Alzheimer.”  [NATURE COMMUNICATIONS]
  •  The World Health Organization classified alcohol as a carcinogen over 36 years ago, but it now remains the third leading preventable cause of cancer (after tobacco and obesity). The U.S. Surgeon General has just ordered this Cancer Warning Advisory to be carried on labels of alcohol now sold to the three-in-five American adults who regularly consume alcohol according to Gallup Poll.  [ECONOMIST]
  •  Some 228,000 federal workers “never show up for work” and an additional 1.1 million are designated as “eligible for telework part of the time, with nearly all of them taking advantage of it.” Temporary telework policies were instituted during the pandemic, but have effectively become permanent, with many residing in California, Oregon and Colorado according to an Interior Department inspector-general report.